October 13, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - A new Liaison Strategies Toronto survey finds Mayor Olivia Chow leading Brad Bradford 51% to 46% among decided and leaning voters, with 3% choosing someone else. The race divides sharply by housing tenure: Chow leads among renters, while Bradford leads among homeowners.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from October 8 to October 9, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples, including decided and leaning voters. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"Chow is ahead, but Bradford is within five points. Both leading candidates have higher shares on this ballot with the suspension of Chris Alexander's campaign."
"Housing tenure gives us a useful way to understand this contest. Among decided and leaning voters who rent, Chow leads 57% to 40%. Among homeowners, Bradford leads 50% to 45%. The candidates are drawing support from people with different experiences of living in Toronto."
"Bradford's support also runs ahead of his favourable rating. He has 38% among all respondents, but 37% view him favourably and 40% unfavourably. Even among people choosing Bradford on the initial vote question, 5% have an unfavourable impression of him, 6% are unsure and 5% are unfamiliar with him. Some of his support is not accompanied by a positive personal opinion. That being said, the total here is 16% of Bradford supporters having a less than ideal impression of him, that is down from 30% from earlier polling despite the fact he has more supporters now than before."
"The undecided voters are a different audience altogether. Forty-two per cent are unfamiliar with Bradford and another 18% are unsure how they feel about him. That is 60% who have not formed a favourable or unfavourable impression. For his campaign, introducing himself is still important among the people who have not chosen a candidate."
"Chow has an opportunity with those voters too. Among the undecided, 37% approve of her performance and 34% disapprove, while 29% are unsure. They are not overwhelmingly hostile to the mayor. 16% of Toronto voters say they are undecided."
"Chow's overall approval is 52%, with 43% disapproving and 5% unsure. That compares with 50% approval and 44% disapproval in our October 6 release. Her approval has improved modestly even as the gap between the two leading candidates is smaller on this ballot."
"Bradford now leads in Scarborough, 50% to 47%, and has a much larger 59% to 38% advantage in Etobicoke. Chow leads Downtown, 57% to 39%, and in North York, 50% to 46%. These regional samples are smaller and more variable, but they give both campaigns clear places to defend and places to make up ground."
"Among women, Chow leads 58% to 39%. Among men, Bradford leads 53% to 43%. There is an age divide as well: Chow leads 54% to 42% among those aged 18 to 34, while Bradford leads 51% to 46% among those aged 65 and older."
"The city's mood is still closely divided. Forty-seven per cent say Toronto is moving in the right direction and 45% say the wrong direction. Among all respondents, Chow has 42%, Bradford 38%, someone else 3%, and 16% are undecided. There are still voters to persuade. Neither campaign should read this result as a settled outcome."
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Detailed Poll Report:
Detailed Tables:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.
