FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 29, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - A new Liaison Strategies Toronto Pulse survey shows Mayor Olivia Chow holding an 8-point lead over Councillor Brad Bradford among decided and leaning voters, while the city remains evenly split on whether Toronto is moving in the right direction.

If a mayoral election were held today, Chow would receive 49% among decided and leaning voters, followed by Bradford at 41% and someone else at 10%. In the previous Toronto Pulse survey, Chow stood at 49%, Bradford at 40%, and someone else at 10%.

Among all voters, Chow is at 39%, Bradford is at 33%, someone else is at 8%, and 20% are undecided.

The survey also finds Torontonians split on the city's direction: 46% say Toronto is moving in the right direction, 46% say it is moving in the wrong direction, and 8% are not sure.

Chow's job approval is 51%, while 43% disapprove and 6% are not sure. Bradford's favourability is 31%, while 26% have an unfavourable impression of him, 13% are not sure, and 31% are not familiar with him.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from July 24 to July 26, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"This remains Olivia Chow's race, but it is not a slam dunk. Among decided and leaning voters she leads Brad Bradford by 8 points, 49% to 41%. That is a slight narrowing from the previous Toronto Pulse survey, when Chow led 49% to 40%."

"Among all voters, the race is Chow 39%, Bradford 33%, someone else 8%, and undecided 20%. That is essentially unchanged from the previous survey, but the key point is that Bradford has now moved from being a distant hypothetical challenger at the beginning of the year to someone within single digits among decided voters."

"Chow's job approval remains positive, but it is no longer a towering number. Fifty-one per cent approve of the job she is doing as mayor, while 43% disapprove and 6% are not sure. That is almost identical to the previous survey, and it suggests her approval has stabilized after the spring slide."

"The direction-of-city number is the bigger warning sign for City Hall. Right direction and wrong direction are tied at 46% apiece. That means Chow can still be personally ahead while the city's mood is not especially happy."

"Bradford is becoming better known, but not only in one direction. Thirty-one per cent now have a favourable impression of him, up from 29%, while 26% have an unfavourable impression, up from 23%. The share who say they are not familiar with him has fallen from 35% to 31%."

"That is the trade-off for Bradford. He still has room to introduce himself to voters, but as more people form an opinion of him, both his favourable and unfavourable numbers can rise. He is becoming more of a real challenger, and that also means becoming more defined."

"The geography of the race is clear. Chow leads Bradford among decided and leaning voters Downtown, 55% to 36%, in North York, 52% to 37%, and in Scarborough, 50% to 41%. Bradford's best region is Etobicoke, where he leads Chow 54% to 35%."

"The political story is that Chow is still ahead, Bradford is still inching forward, and the city's mood is split. For Chow, the danger is not that voters have turned decisively against her. The danger is that a merely mixed city mood gives Bradford enough room to keep making the race more competitive."

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Detailed Poll Report:

Detailed Tables:

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.