October 21, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - A new Liaison Strategies Toronto survey finds Brad Bradford at 49% and Mayor Olivia Chow at 47% among decided and leaning voters, with 3% choosing someone else. That reverses Chow's five-point advantage in the previous survey, although the latest two-point gap does not establish a clear lead.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from October 18 to October 19, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples, including decided and leaning voters. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"Bradford has gained three points and Chow has lost four since our October 13 release. A five-point Chow lead has become a two-point Bradford edge. The order has changed, but this is not a result either campaign can treat as a clear lead. It is a much less comfortable race for the mayor than it was last week."
"North York is the biggest change in the regional results. Chow led there 50% to 46% last time. Bradford now leads 56% to 42%. He also leads 63% to 35% in Etobicoke. Chow retains a 55% to 41% advantage Downtown, while Scarborough is almost evenly divided at 49% for Chow and 48% for Bradford. Regional samples are smaller and more variable, but Bradford's strength is no longer confined to Etobicoke."
"The city's mood has worsened at the same time. Forty-nine per cent say Toronto is moving in the wrong direction and 43% say the right direction. Last time, right direction led 47% to 45%. Chow's approval is still at 50%, with 45% disapproving, compared with 52% and 43% previously."
"The homeowner-renter divide remains, but Bradford has improved on both sides of it. Among decided and leaning homeowners, he leads 54% to 42%, compared with 50% to 45% last time. Chow leads among renters by 54% to 44%, down from 57% to 40%. Bradford has widened his advantage among owners while reducing his deficit among renters. That is a more useful development for his campaign than gains confined to people who already strongly favour him."
"Bradford's ballot improvement has not produced an equally strong personal rating. Thirty-eight per cent view him favourably and 42% unfavourably, compared with 37% and 40% last time. Another 11% are unsure and 9% are unfamiliar with him. He is gaining votes without becoming more broadly liked."
"Among all respondents, Bradford has 42%, Chow 41% and someone else 3%, while 14% are undecided. Those undecided voters are not uniformly opposed to Chow: 44% approve of her performance and 36% disapprove. Nor has Bradford finished introducing himself to them. Thirty-one per cent are unfamiliar with him and another 18% are unsure how they feel about him. Both campaigns still have people to persuade."
"Chow continues to lead among women, 56% to 41%, while Bradford leads among men, 58% to 38%. Among voters aged 65 and older, Bradford leads 56% to 40%. The youngest voters, aged 18 to 34, are tied at 49% each. Chow cannot count on a large advantage among younger voters in this survey to offset Bradford's strength among seniors."
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Detailed Poll Report:
Detailed Tables:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.
