July 22, 2026 (Ottawa, ON) - A new Ottawa Compass municipal survey conducted in partnership with Liaison Strategies finds Mayor Mark Sutcliffe leading the Ottawa mayoral race, while Alex Lawson and Jeff Leiper are effectively tied for second place.

Among all voters, Sutcliffe leads with 24%, followed by Leiper and Lawson at 17% each, Neil Saravanamuttoo at 7%, someone else at 1%, and 34% undecided.

Among decided and leaning voters, Sutcliffe leads at 36%, followed by Lawson at 26%, Leiper at 25%, Saravanamuttoo at 11%, and someone else at 2%.

Liaison surveyed a representative sample of 1,000 Ottawa residents from July 17 to 19, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across landline and cellular phone networks. Results were weighted by age, gender, language and region based on 2021 Census data. The margin of error for a comparable probability sample is ±3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"Sutcliffe is still ahead, but the race has changed underneath him. He is at 24% among all voters, and among decided and leaning voters he is at 36%. That is a lead, but it is not a dominant lead with the undecided rate still so high."

"The bigger story is the battle behind him. Lawson and Leiper are tied at 17% among all voters, and among decided and leaning voters Lawson is at 26% while Leiper is at 25%. Lawson has gone from being a distant third to being effectively tied for second."

"In April, Sutcliffe was at 46% among decided voters, Leiper was at 37%, and Lawson was at 13%. In July, Sutcliffe is at 36%, Lawson is at 26%, and Leiper is at 25%. The mayor's vote has come down but his lead has increased as the opposition vote is split."

"Sutcliffe's advantage is also very regional. Among decided and leaning voters, he is at 51% in the south and 46% in the west, but only 17% in central Ottawa. In central Ottawa, Leiper leads with 38% and Lawson is at 28%."

"The city mood remains a problem for the incumbent. Sutcliffe's approval is 45%, while 51% disapprove. Only 30% say Ottawa is moving in the right direction, while 51% say it is moving in the wrong direction. These numbers are an improvement on recent months."

"In central Ottawa, the numbers are especially difficult for Sutcliffe. Seventy-five per cent disapprove of the job he is doing and 73% say the city is moving in the wrong direction. That is why Leiper is so strong there."

"The issue mix is not helping City Hall either. Housing affordability is the top issue at 23%, followed by traffic at 17%, crime at 15%, homelessness and inflation at 12% each, and transit at 11%."

"There are really different Ottawa electorates in these numbers. In the east, housing affordability and crime are the top issues. In central Ottawa, transit and homelessness dominate. In the west and south, traffic is much more prominent. That matters because the candidates' coalitions are regional too."

"On policing, Ottawa residents are divided and the regional differences are again quite stark. Forty-nine per cent say they have at least some trust in the Ottawa Police Service, while 43% say they do not have very much trust or no trust at all."

"The police debate is also not a simple more-police-versus-reform split. Thirty-two per cent say Ottawa needs a more visible police presence in neighbourhoods and on transit, 29% say Ottawa needs police reform and accountability more than a larger police presence, and 25% say both equally."

"Overall, Sutcliffe is still the candidate to beat, but this is not a settled race. He leads, but the city mood is sour, his approval is underwater, the undecided pool is large, but the challenger field is split. Lawson's growth and Saravanamuttoo's growth are changing the shape of the race."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.