September 24, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - A new Liaison Strategies Ontario Political Tracker finds the Progressive Conservatives leading the Ontario Liberals 40% to 34% among decided and leaning voters, while a test of potential Liberal leaders shows how much public preferences can change after a brief introduction.

The Ontario NDP stands at 21%, other parties at 3%, and the Greens at 2%. Navdeep Bains is the most popular initial leadership choice among Ontarians, but Lee Fairclough records the highest share after respondents hear descriptions of the five people tested. Bains remains ahead among current Ontario Liberal voters.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,600 Ontarians from September 15 to September 19, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The PCs have held on to their August recovery. They are at 40%, up one point, while the Liberals are at 34%, down one, and the NDP is at 21%, up one. Those are small changes. The more important finding is that last month's PC rebound has not disappeared."

"Ford's approval has edged up to 38%, from 36% in August and 24% in July. Disapproval is down to 59%, from 61% last month. He has recovered considerable ground since July, but a majority still disapprove."

"Nor has the province's mood caught up with the government's electoral position. Seventy per cent say Ontario is moving in the wrong direction and 29% say the right direction. The PCs leads while most Ontarians remain unhappy with where the province is headed."

"For the Liberals, the leadership findings show how little of the public's opinion is settled. Before hearing descriptions, 51% are unsure who they would prefer and another 22% choose none of the people tested. Bains leads at 12%, followed by Fairclough at 6%, Stephanie Bowman at 5%, Eric Lombardi at 3%, and Dylan Marando at 2%. The largest group has not picked anyone."

"After we read short descriptions of each person's background, Fairclough is at 23%, Bains at 20%, Bowman at 13%, Lombardi at 10%, and Marando at 6%. The unsure share falls to 14%, while 15% choose none. Fairclough's 17-point increase is the largest, but the broader lesson is that giving voters information changes the picture considerably."

"These are responses to the particular descriptions read in the survey, not a forecast of the leadership result. We surveyed Ontarians, not a verified electorate of Liberal Party members. The full descriptions are included in the report so readers can see exactly what respondents heard."

"With such low name recognition, these candidates face a serious challenge getting their own message across before the PCs define them. They have room to build support, but they do not have unlimited time. The risk of being defined by their opponents outweighs any benefit of starting with a relatively blank slate."

"The distinction matters because current Liberal voters give a different answer. Bains leads that group initially with 25%, compared with 11% for Fairclough. After the descriptions, Bains is at 32% and Fairclough at 26%, followed by Bowman at 15%, Lombardi at 10%, and Marando at 5%. Bains retains the advantage among the party's existing voters even though Fairclough records the highest share provincewide."

"Fairclough's informed-choice result is stronger among NDP voters, at 28%, than Bains's 16%. Among undecided provincial voters, she is at 26% and he is at 11%. These are smaller samples, but they illustrate why appealing to the party's current supporters and appealing beyond them are not necessarily the same task."

"There is an audience beyond the Liberal base. Thirty-one per cent of Ontarians would definitely consider voting Liberal and another 27% would possibly consider it. Thirty-six per cent would not, and 7% are unsure. That combined 58% is openness to considering the party, not a prediction of its vote share."

"The potential opening is much larger among NDP voters than PC voters. Eighteen per cent of NDP voters would definitely consider voting Liberal and 43% possibly would. Among PC voters, those figures are 4% and 21%, while 70% would not consider it. Among undecided voters, 10% definitely would and 41% possibly would."

"The next Liberal leader will inherit a party that is competitive without being ahead. The challenge is to turn consideration into a vote. This survey shows that introductions can move opinions, but it does not tell us which person will withstand a full campaign or bring those voters into the Liberal column."

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Detailed Poll Report:

2026.09.24 Ontario Charts

Detailed Tables:

2026.09.24 Ontario Tables

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.