A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, shows Mark Carney's Liberals leading by two points at 37%.

The rolling survey, conducted from March 14 to March 16, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

"Although Liberal support has dipped slightly from earlier tracking, regional figures still present a tough landscape for the Conservatives. The Liberals hold leads in Ontario and Atlantic Canada and are tied with the Bloc in Quebec, while Conservative support remains concentrated in the West."

"That said, today's numbers are an improvement for the Conservatives compared to just a few days ago."

"The key question now is when the election will be called. Many speculate the writ could drop this Sunday, kicking off a 36-day campaign, though a longer timeline may be needed to accommodate religious holidays. If the Liberals maintain their lead—or stay within one to two points of the Conservatives—a Liberal minority government remains the most likely outcome," concluded Valentin.