June 22, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, returning to an 11-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, a margin they last held in late May. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals stand at 43%, followed by the Conservatives at 32%, the NDP at 14%, and the Bloc Québécois at 6%.

The Green Party, People’s Party, and Other parties are each at 2%. Among all voters, the Liberals are at 37%, the Conservatives are at 28%, the NDP is at 12%, the Bloc is at 5%, the Greens are at 2%, the PPC and Other parties are at 1% each, and 14% are undecided.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from June 7 to June 20, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling across landline and cellular phone networks. The data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

“The Liberal lead has moved from 9 points to 11 points this week. The Liberals are up 2 points to 43%, while the Conservatives are unchanged at 32% and the NDP is unchanged at 14%.”

“That 11-point margin is not new territory for the Liberals, but it does show they have recovered from the tightening we saw earlier in June. The race has moved back to where it was in late May.”

“Carney’s approval is steady at 57%, while disapproval is down one point to 36%. That leaves him at a net positive of 21 points. The rebound we saw last week has held.”

“The interesting number this week is Poilievre. His favourable rating is up 2 points to 39%, tying his tracker high, while his unfavourable rating is down 2 points to 47%, the lowest we have recorded for him. At net -8, this is his best overall standing in our tracker.”

“But the improvement in Poilievre’s personal numbers is not showing up in the ballot. The Conservative vote share is unchanged at 32%. He is less disliked than he has been, but the party is still not growing.”

“Avi Lewis is also becoming more defined. His favourable rating is up 2 points to 28%, but his unfavourable rating is also up 2 points to 25%. As voters get to know him, they are forming opinions in both directions.”

“Lewis continues to stand out in British Columbia, where his favourable rating is 49%. The NDP is also strongest in BC at 22% among decided and leaning voters, though the Liberals still lead there with 43%.”

“Regionally, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. The Conservatives lead in the Prairies and Alberta. Ontario is a major source of Liberal strength this week, with the Liberals at 48% and the Conservatives at 34% among decided and leaning voters.”

“The age splits also matter. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the Liberals are at 34%, the Conservatives are at 28%, and the NDP is at 25%. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals are at 56%. The Liberal coalition is still anchored by older voters, but they are also ahead with younger voters this week.”

“For now, the Liberals are back to an 11-point lead and Carney’s approval remains solid. The Conservative problem is that even Poilievre’s best personal numbers in our tracker have not moved the party beyond 32%.”

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.