July 6, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding a 9-point lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals stand at 43%, followed by the Conservatives at 34%, the NDP at 14%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, the Green Party at 2%, and the People's Party and Other parties at 1% each.

Among all voters, the Liberals are at 37%, the Conservatives are at 30%, the NDP is at 12%, the Bloc is at 5%, the Greens and PPC are at 1% each, Other parties are at 0%, and 14% are undecided.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from June 21 to July 4, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling across landline and cellular phone networks. The data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The federal race is basically holding steady. Last week the Liberals led by 8, this week they lead by 9. The Liberals are up one point, the Conservatives are unchanged, and the NDP is up one point."

"That means the topline is not telling us there has been a major shift. The Conservatives gained ground last week and they have held it, but they have not continued to close the gap. The Liberals remain in the low 40s among decided voters, which is where they have been for most of the last several weeks."

"Carney's approval is also steady. Fifty-eight per cent approve of the job he is doing as Prime Minister, 35% disapprove, and 7% are not sure. His approval is unchanged from last week, while disapproval is down a point. This is not his high point, but it is also not his low point. His lowest approval in our tracker was 55%, reached on January 5 and again on June 8."

"Poilievre's numbers are also stable. Thirty-seven per cent have a favourable view of him, 50% have an unfavourable view, 7% are not sure, and 5% are not familiar with him. That is essentially unchanged from last week. He is not at his best point in the tracker, which was June 22 when his unfavourable number fell to 47%, but he is still in a better place than he was earlier this year."

"Avi Lewis is in a different position. His favourable number is 28%, which ties his best result in our tracking, but his unfavourable number is now 27%, the highest we have recorded for him. So as he becomes better known, both sides of the ledger are moving."

"The NDP number is worth watching, especially in British Columbia. Nationally, the NDP is at 14% among decided voters, but in BC they are at 25%, behind the Liberals at 39% and Conservatives at 34%. That is not a breakthrough, but it is a real regional pocket of strength."

"Regionally, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. The Conservatives lead in the Prairies and Alberta. Ontario remains a key Liberal strength, with the Liberals at 48% and the Conservatives at 37% among decided and leaning voters."

"The age split is also worth watching. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the Liberals are at 35%, the Conservatives are at 29%, and the NDP is at 23%. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals lead 54% to 30%. The Liberals are still anchored by older voters, but they are also ahead with younger voters this week."

"Overall, this is a stable Liberal lead, not a runaway one. The Conservatives are close enough to keep the race competitive, but they have not yet found the next bit of movement they need. For now, the Liberals remain ahead and the national picture looks more settled than volatile."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.