June 1, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding a 9-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Meanwhile, the NDP has jumped to 16%, its highest level in Liaison’s federal tracking since the 2025 election.

If a federal election were held today among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals would receive 41% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives at 32%, the NDP at 16%, and the Bloc Québécois at 6%. The Green Party, People’s Party, and Other parties each sit at 2%.

Among all voters, the Liberals stand at 35%, followed by the Conservatives at 28%, the NDP at 14%, the Bloc at 5%, and the Greens, PPC, and Other parties at 1% each. Fourteen per cent of voters remain undecided.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from May 17 to May 30, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing across landline and cellular phone networks. The sample includes a dedicated oversample of Quebec voters. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.51 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

“The Liberals still have a comfortable national lead, but this is the first week in a while where the movement underneath them is more interesting than the topline. The Liberal lead has narrowed from 12 points to 9, the Conservatives are up a point, and the NDP has jumped 5 points to 16%.”

“That NDP movement matters. Avi Lewis is still not fully known to Canadians, but he is becoming better known and his favourable number is consistently higher than his unfavourable number. This week, 26% have a favourable view of Lewis, 21% have an unfavourable view, and 32% say they are not familiar with him. That unfamiliar number is down from 33% last week and has fallen steadily since we started tracking him.”

"A couple of notes about British Columbia: the NDP are doing particularly well there at 26% (though they are still in third) but it is also where we see the greatest share of undecided voters (17%). So, we are seeing several signals out of BC that there may be some realignment taking place and whether or not it sticks becomes the question. As to what is driving it my theory of the case is that it's pipeline politics and the charm offensive from Avi Lewis (more on him later) who has his highest favourability in BC (32%)."

“Meanwhile, Carney’s approval is down 2 points this week, from 59% to 57%, while disapproval has risen to 38%. That is not his lowest approval number since we began tracking him, but he is getting close to that mark again. He remains popular overall, but the gap between approval and disapproval has tightened.”

“Looking at the Tories, Poilievre’s numbers are basically unchanged. His favourable rating is up a point to 39%, while his unfavourable rating is down a point to 51%. That is a small improvement, but he remains net negative by double digits.”

“Regionally, the Liberal coalition still looks broad. They lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario, while the Conservatives remain strongest in the Prairies and Alberta. In Ontario, the Liberals lead by 14 points, 46% to 32%. In Quebec, they lead the Bloc province-wide, 36% to 27%, with the Conservatives at 26%. In British Columbia the Conservatives are ahead by 2 points, 34% to 32% and as we mentioned earlier the NDP are in third at 26%.”

“The age split is also important. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the Liberals are at 31%, the NDP at 30%(!), and the Conservatives at 28%. Among older voters, the Liberals remain well ahead. So the national race still favours the Liberals, but younger voters are looking much more competitive.”

“For now, this is still a Liberal advantage. But the NDP’s bounce, Carney’s softer approval, and Lewis becoming more familiar give us something to watch next week.”

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.