June 8, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding an 8-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. The Liberals stand at 40% among decided and leaning voters, followed by the Conservatives at 32%, the NDP at 15%, and the Bloc Québécois at 7%. While the Liberals lead by 8, Carney's approval has fallen to 55%, the lowest number we have recorded for him (he also hit this low on January 5th of this year).

Among all voters, the Liberals are at 34%, the Conservatives are at 28%, the NDP is at 13%, the Bloc is at 6%, the Greens, PPC, and Other parties are at 2% each, and 14% are undecided.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from May 24 to June 6, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing across landline and cellular phone networks. The sample includes a dedicated oversample of Quebec voters. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.51 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

“The Liberals still have a clear national lead, but this is another week where the story is a little softer for Mark Carney. The Liberal lead is down from 9 points last week to 8 points this week, with the Liberals down one point to 40%, the Conservatives unchanged at 32%, and the NDP down one point to 15%.”

“The NDP number is still elevated compared to where it was in May, but it is not another jump. What we are seeing this week is more of a holding pattern on vote intention, with the Liberals still ahead and the Conservatives still looking for a way to narrow the gap.”

“Carney’s approval is the number to watch. His approval is down 2 points this week to 55%, while disapproval is up one point to 39%. That is still a net positive rating, but 55% is the lowest approval number we have recorded for the Prime Minister.”

“Poilievre’s numbers are not moving in the direction he needs. His favourable rating is down 2 points to 37%, while his unfavourable rating is unchanged at 51%. He remains net negative by double digits.”

“Avi Lewis is also worth watching, but for a slightly different reason. His favourable rating is down one point to 25%, his unfavourable rating is unchanged at 21%, and the share saying they are not familiar with him is down 2 points to 30%. So Lewis is becoming better known, but this week that has not translated into a higher favourable number.”

“Regionally, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia among decided and leaning voters. The Conservatives lead in the Prairies and Alberta. Ontario is tighter than it was last week, with the Liberals at 42% and the Conservatives at 37%. In British Columbia, the Liberals are at 34%, the Conservatives are at 32%, and the NDP is close behind at 28%.”

“The younger vote remains the pressure point for the Liberals. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the NDP leads at 31%, followed by the Liberals at 26% and the Conservatives at 24%. Among older voters, the Liberals are still well ahead, which is why they continue to lead nationally.”

“So this is still a Liberal advantage, but it is no longer a story of the Liberals simply running away with it. Carney’s approval is at a tracker low, Lewis is becoming more familiar, and the NDP remains competitive with younger voters. Those are the signals to watch. Next week's the NDP's strongest tracking week in a long time will fall off the tracker, what replaces it will dictate whether they remain in the mid-teens or fall back down to single digits.”

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.