FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

August 24, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Liaison Strategies Weekly Federal Tracker shows the Liberals holding an 11-point lead over the Conservatives, but the results should be read with an important caveat: only one day of tracking took place after Donald Trump's latest trade-war escalation with Canada.

Fielding for this tracker ran from August 9 to August 22. That means the survey largely captures the political environment before the latest U.S.-Canada trade shock had time to fully register with voters.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals are at 43%, the Conservatives are at 32%, the NDP is at 13%, the Bloc Québécois is at 6%, the Greens are at 3%, the People's Party is at 2%, and other parties are at 1%.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from August 9 to August 22, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 2.51 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The first thing to say about this tracker is that it is mostly pre-trade-war data. The field period runs to August 22, but only one day of tracking took place after Trump's latest escalation. So this is not yet a clean measure of the political fallout."

"The topline is stable. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals are at 43%, the Conservatives are at 32%, and the NDP is at 13%. That is unchanged from last week."

"The Liberal lead is real, but the political context may be about to change. Next week's tracker will tell us much more about whether voters are rallying around Carney, blaming the government, or simply absorbing the shock."

"Carney's approval remains strong at 59%, with 31% disapproving. That is down 1 point from last week, but still a very solid number for a sitting prime minister."

"Regionally, Carney's approval is especially strong in Quebec, where 76% approve. It is weakest in Alberta, where 39% approve and 56% disapprove."

"Poilievre's numbers are not improving this week. His favourable number is 34%, down 1 point, while his unfavourable number is 54%, up 1 point. He remains better liked in Alberta and the Prairies, but he is deeply underwater nationally."

"The Conservative challenge is that the ballot is not moving even though Carney is not at his peak. The Conservatives are at 32%, the same as last week, and they are still 11 points behind the Liberals."

"The age story remains important. Among voters 18 to 34, the race is much more fragmented: the Liberals are at 30%, the Conservatives are at 29%, and the NDP is at 26%. Younger voters are not giving the Liberals the kind of advantage they have with older voters."

"The Liberal advantage is still built heavily on women and older voters. Among women, the Liberals lead 49% to 25%. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals lead 57% to 26%. That is the foundation of their national lead."

"Avi Lewis remains politically interesting. He is at 31% favourable and 30% unfavourable nationally, which is basically split, but he is much stronger among younger voters and in British Columbia. Among voters 18 to 34, his favourability is 46%, and in BC it is 44%."

"The NDP is also strongest where Lewis is strongest. Among decided and leaning voters, the NDP is at 26% among voters 18 to 34 and 22% in BC."

"The political takeaway is that the Liberals remain comfortably ahead, but this tracker may be the last mostly pre-trade-war read. The next wave will matter more. If Canadians see Carney as standing up to Trump, the Liberals could benefit. If they see the trade war through the lens of jobs, prices, and economic anxiety, the politics could become much more complicated."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.