August 3, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding a 9-point lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, while Carney's approval edges upward and Poilievre's favourability slips.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals stand at 43%, followed by the Conservatives at 34%, the NDP at 12%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, the Green Party at 2%, the People's Party at 2%, and Other parties at 1%.

Among all voters, the Liberals are at 39%, the Conservatives are at 30%, the NDP is at 11%, the Bloc is at 5%, the Greens are at 2%, the PPC and Other parties are at 1% each, and 11% are undecided.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from July 19 to August 1, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across landline and cellular phone networks. The data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the total sample is +/-2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, though this margin is higher for sub-samples. Additionally, results may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The Liberal lead is unchanged at 9 points this week. The Liberals are down one point to 43%, the Conservatives are down one point to 34%, and the NDP is up one point to 12%. The topline has moved, but only a little. The broader story is that the Liberals remain in the low-to-mid 40s and the Conservatives remain in the mid-30s."

"Among all voters, the Liberals are at 39%, the Conservatives are at 30%, and the NDP is at 11%. Undecided is down to 11%, which is a notable move from 14% last week. The Liberals have not expanded the decided-voter lead, but there are fewer voters sitting outside the ballot question."

"The regional picture is also stable, but not uniform. The Liberals lead in Ontario, 48% to 36%, in Quebec, 44% to 25% over the Bloc and 20% over the Conservatives, and in British Columbia, 43% to 31% over the Conservatives. The Conservatives lead in Alberta, 51% to 32%, and in the Prairies, 45% to 32%."

"Carney's approval is 57%, with 34% disapproving and 9% not sure. That is up one point on approval and down one point on disapproval compared to last week. He remains strongly above water at plus 23, and he continues to have broad support among older voters and in Quebec."

"Poilievre's favourable number is down two points to 34%, while his unfavourable number is up one point to 52%. Eight per cent are not sure and 5% are not familiar with him. His favourability has been better than this in the tracker, including 36% last week and 39% earlier this year, so this is a soft week for him personally."

"Avi Lewis is at 30% favourable, 29% unfavourable, 22% not sure, and 19% not familiar with him. His favourable number is up one point, but his unfavourable number is up two points. The net is still slightly positive, but he is becoming better known in both directions."

"Lewis continues to matter to the national picture because the NDP's vote is uneven. Nationally, the NDP is at 12% among decided and leaning voters, but they are at 23% among voters aged 18 to 34 and 22% in British Columbia."

"The gender and age splits are doing a lot of work. Women favour the Liberals 48% to 27%, while men are much tighter, with the Liberals at 41% and the Conservatives at 40%. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the Liberals are at 35%, the Conservatives are at 27%, and the NDP is at 23%. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals lead 57% to 30%."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.