October 19, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Liaison Strategies National Tracker finds the Liberals holding at 45% among decided and leaning voters, followed by the Conservatives at 30% and the NDP at 14%. The Conservatives have gained in each of the last two releases, reducing the Liberal lead from 18 points to 15. In Alberta, the Liberals trail the Conservatives by just three points as the province votes in its referendum.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from October 4 to October 17, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and is higher for subsamples. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding. This rolling survey combines two weeks of interviews; consecutive weekly releases share one week of sampling.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The Conservatives have gone from 28% to 29% to 30% over three releases. That is a modest improvement after their tracking low. The Liberals have given up just one point over the same period and still lead by 15. The Conservatives need more weeks of improvement before this becomes a substantially different contest."

"Alberta makes this release particularly timely. Fifty-eight per cent approve of Carney, up from 53% last week and 54% on October 5. His net approval in the province is plus 22 points, with 36% disapproving. That is his highest Alberta approval rating this year, surpassing 57% in March, though below the 63% he reached in November 2025. He enters referendum day with a majority of Albertans approving of his performance."

"The federal ballot is close in Alberta too. The Conservatives have 44% and the Liberals 41% among decided and leaning voters. That is the highest Alberta Liberal vote share we have recorded, exceeding the previous high of 40% in March 2026. The Liberals were at 31% on September 28, 35% on October 5 and 38% last week. Over those releases, the Conservative lead has narrowed from 18 points to 11, then seven and now three. These are smaller, overlapping samples, but the recent results are much more competitive for the Liberals than they were at the end of September."

"The Conservative recovery is not coming with a collapse in approval for Carney. Sixty-four per cent approve of his performance, unchanged from last week, while 28% disapprove and 8% are unsure. His approval remains much higher than the Liberal vote share. The opposition still has to persuade Canadians who are reasonably satisfied with the prime minister that they should elect someone else."

"Poilievre has a better personal result this week as well. Thirty-four per cent view him favourably, up from 32%, while 53% view him unfavourably, down from 55%. That reverses last week's deterioration and returns him to the ratings he had on October 5. His net favourability is minus 19 points, a majority still has an unfavourable impression of him."

"The other western results are quite different. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan combined, the Conservatives have 43% and the Liberals 36%. In British Columbia, the Liberals lead with 41%, followed by the Conservatives at 29% and the NDP at 23%. They also caution against assuming that a Conservative improvement will look the same across the West."

"Ontario has narrowed slightly, from a 49% to 33% Liberal lead last week to 48% to 34% now. Quebec gives the Liberals 45%, the Bloc 25% and the Conservatives 17%. The Conservatives are still a long way behind in both of the largest provinces."

"The NDP has slipped from 15% to 14%, while Lewis's favourable rating has eased from 35% to 33%. Twenty-eight per cent view him unfavourably, 29% are unsure and 10% are unfamiliar with him. Last week's improvement has not continued. For the NDP, there is still a substantial audience deciding what it thinks of Lewis, as well as the question of how to turn that opinion into votes."

"The Liberal lead remains large among women, at 51% to 25%, than among men, at 41% to 36%. Among voters aged 65 and older, the Liberals have 56% and the Conservatives 26%."

"The Bloc remains at 6% nationally, with the Greens and the People's Party at 2% each and other parties at 1%. The Conservatives have made some progress since the start of October but they have not yet forced the Liberals out of the mid-40s."

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Detailed Poll Report:

2026.10.19 National Charts

Detailed Tables:

2026.10.19 National Tables

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.