October 9, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - A new Liaison Strategies British Columbia Political Tracker finds the BC Conservatives leading the BC NDP 43% to 37% among decided and leaning voters.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 British Columbians from October 7 to October 8, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples, including decided and leaning voters. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The Conservatives have moved from 36% in our September 23 release to 40% on September 29 and now 43%. Over the same period, the NDP has gone from 41% to 39% to 37%. Individual changes should be treated cautiously, but the sequence is becoming harder for the government to dismiss."

"Eby's approval is moving in the same direction as his party's support. Thirty-four per cent approve of his performance, down from 38% in our previous survey, while 48% disapprove, up from 45%. His net approval has deteriorated from minus seven points to minus fourteen."

"The province's mood is also less favourable to the government. Fifty-four per cent say British Columbia is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 30% who say the right direction. Previously, those figures were 50% and 33%. The NDP needs to give dissatisfied voters a reason to stay with it."

"The regional picture explains both the Conservative lead and its limitations. The Conservatives lead 54% to 30% across the rest of B.C., outside Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island. In Metro Vancouver, they have a much narrower 40% to 38% advantage. On Vancouver Island, the NDP still leads 44% to 32%."

"The age divide is substantial. The NDP leads 45% to 36% among voters aged 18 to 34, while the Conservatives lead 47% to 32% among those aged 55 and older. Among voters aged 35 to 54, the Conservatives lead 42% to 37%. Those smaller samples are more variable, but they show the parties drawing strength from different generations."

"Doerkson's numbers are a useful caution against treating this as a surge in personal enthusiasm. Thirty per cent view him favourably, up from 27%, but 35% view him unfavourably, up from 32%. His net rating is unchanged. The share unfamiliar with him has fallen from 17% to 12%, but becoming better known is not the same as becoming better liked."

"The Greens have 10% among decided and leaning voters, compared with 11% previously. Emily Lowan is viewed favourably by 24% and unfavourably by 23%, while 27% are unsure and 26% are unfamiliar with her. More than half the province still has not settled on an opinion of her."

"Among all respondents on the initial vote question, the Conservatives have 34%, the NDP 28%, the Greens 7%, OneBC 3%, CentreBC 2%, and other parties 3%, with 23% undecided. Among decided and leaning voters, OneBC and other parties each have 4%, and CentreBC has 3%. There are still voters to persuade."

"The challenge for Eby is that the ballot, his approval rating and the province's direction are all moving against him. The Conservatives are benefiting, but their lead has not been accompanied by an improvement in Doerkson's net favourability. The NDP has ground to recover; the Conservatives still have confidence to build."

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Detailed Poll Report:

2026.10.09 British Columbia Charts

Detailed Tables:

2026.10.09 British Columbia Tables

About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, Principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.