(Toronto, ON) – A new poll conducted by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) shows Doug Ford's PCs leading the Ontario Liberals by 10 points - a slight narrowing of the race.

The survey, conducted February 8-9, 2025, using interactive voice response technology, polled 1,201 Ontario voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.82%, 19 times out of 20. Liaison Strategies is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

“Our latest tracking survey shows the PC lead has narrowed slightly, from a 12 point lead to a 10 point lead - within the margin of error,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.

“This week we see the Ontario NDP rebound 2 points from a low of 16, the Ontario Liberals are steady at 31%, the Greens are up one point to 6% and the Ontario PCs continue cruising at 41%.”

“Some trends are continuing: the PCs are first, the Liberals are second and the NDP are further back in third. The Liberals continue to lead in the City of Toronto but that lead has narrowed to 3 points, within the regional margin of error for the survey. Meanwhile, the Ontario NDP has rebounded in South Central (Hamilton and Niagara) where they are tied with the PCs.”

“How long these numbers last are anyone's guess as they do not take into account new tariffs announced on aluminum by President Trump. The new tariffs could focus Ontarian's attention, once again, to the economic turmoil threatened by President Trump - the ballot question of the Ontario PCs.”

“The Liberals and NDP will be looking for any opening to shift the conversation to just about anything else, but in particular, healthcare, housing, climate change and ethics..”

“The campaign isn't over - nor is the finish line particularly close. Advance polls start in 10 days and the leader's debate is expected in 7 days so if there will be any further narrowing or change in the campaign we will either see it soon or not at all,” concluded Valentin.

Ontario Numbers (Change from last survey)
Ontario PC 41% (-2)
Ontario Liberal 31% (No change)
Ontario NDP 18% (+2)
Ontario Greens 6% (+1)
Other 4% (-1)