(Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, shows the Liberals expanding their lead to 4 points as they once again hit 40%.

The rolling survey, conducted from March 21 to March 23, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

"The Liberals had a strong showing in yesterday’s rolling survey, coinciding with the leaders officially kicking off their campaigns in Ottawa and Montreal," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "They've regained a 4-point lead over the Conservatives, hitting 40%—essentially the same numbers we saw from March 17-19."

"Regionally, the picture remains largely unchanged, with the Liberals leading in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario. However, they’ve also pulled ahead—albeit narrowly—in British Columbia. We'll be watching tomorrow’s numbers closely to see if this trend holds."

“With the NDP polling at half of their 2021 vote share, the big question now is whether their incumbents can pull off a last-minute save—much like their Ontario counterparts did in the last provincial election. I’d imagine jumbo ‘re-elect’ stickers are being slapped onto lawn signs as we speak, if they aren’t there already. That said, the Ontario NDP didn’t see their support cut in half—this is a much steeper decline.”

“With 78 seats, Quebec is the second-biggest prize on the electoral map, so all eyes should be on the Bloc Québécois. Blanchet faced some tough questions at his campaign launch, even going as far as calling the Bloc a ‘national party’—despite only running candidates in Quebec. Both the Liberals and Conservatives have room to make gains at the Bloc’s expense, and that could be the difference between a minority and a majority government,” concluded Valentin.