(Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% (-2) to the Conservatives 41% (+2).

The rolling survey, conducted from April 14 to April 16, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

Today’s numbers paint a slightly different picture from the past few days, when we mostly saw the Liberal lead growing. The Conservatives have reached a new high in our tracking at 41%, while the Liberals continue to lead at 44%.

It’s important to note that most of the new tracking data doesn't yet reflect the impact of the French-language debate - though a portion, including some of the Quebec sample, does. That said, I wouldn’t read too much into the shift just yet, especially with the English-language debate happening tonight - anything could happen.

We’ll have another update tomorrow, which will include some English post-debate sample, mostly from Western Canada due to CRTC calling restrictions and the debate’s 7 PM ET start time. It will of course contain a full day of Quebec post-debate sample.

My take on yesterday’s debate? It was fine!

Regionally, despite some movement, today’s numbers still point to a Liberal majority government. The Liberals are down 4 points in B.C., with most of that support shifting to the NDP, who are up 3. In Quebec, the Liberals dip 2 points to 42%, while both the Bloc and the Conservatives gain 1. In Ontario, the Liberals are down 2 - from 51% to 49%.

All of this is within the margin of error, but still - losing two points in Ontario and holding at 49% is a very strong position to be in. The Liberals still lead in Atlantic Canada, Québec, Ontario and British Columbia.

Aside from that the Bloc and NDP are both back up to 6% while the Greens are down to 1%. Until tomorrow!