(Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 44% (no change) to the Conservatives 39% (-2).

The rolling survey, conducted from April 15 to April 17, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

The Conservatives gave back yesterday’s gains in today’s update - a pattern we’ve seen often with the recent back-and-forth movement. The Liberals remain steady at 44%, making this a 5-point race.

While some of yesterday’s sample captured reaction to the English-language debate, it was limited and mostly from Western Canada.

Today’s numbers, however, include a full day of post-French debate responses, and the early signs suggest the Bloc Québécois was the main beneficiary. After spending most of our tracking in third place, the Bloc has now edged into a nominal second. It’s a small but notable shift, and one we’ll be watching closely to see if it sticks.

The Liberals continue to lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia - numbers that, if the election were held today, would most likely translate into a Liberal majority government.

The NDP have ticked up a point to 7%, which is an improvement, though still far from strong. They’re polling at 9% in both the Prairies and British Columbia.

Tomorrow may bring some movement as the impact of the English leaders' debate begins to show. In the meantime, parties will be turning their attention to advance polls, which run through Monday, and preparing for platform launches expected this weekend.