(Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 43% (-2) to the Conservatives 40% (+2).

The rolling survey, conducted from April 7 to April 9, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

The race tightened last night as the Conservatives posted a strong performance in the tracking. Overall, the Liberals are down two points while the Conservatives are up two, with the other parties holding steady - the NDP remains at 8%, and the Bloc is unchanged at 5%.

It's worth remembering that any single day could mark the beginning of a trend - or just be statistical noise. So before breaking out the blue label, it's best to wait for tomorrow’s numbers (and maybe the day after) to see if this narrowing holds.

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois has climbed from the high teens to 23% - closer to where we'd expect them, though still on the lower end. Even so, the Liberals continue to lead in the province by a solid 13-point margin.

It’s important to keep in mind that even a 3-point lead for the Liberals would likely translate into a win - and potentially a majority.

Regionally, outside of Quebec, the Liberals continue to lead in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and British Columbia. For the Conservatives to make meaningful gains, they’ll need to boost their support in both B.C. and Ontario.

At yesterday’s Conservative rally, some activists asked, “Do you believe in polls?” It’s easy to brush that off, but it reflects a deeper frustration worth noting. As I’ve mentioned before, the Conservative campaign is actually performing well - under normal circumstances, polling at 40% in Canada’s multi-party system would likely deliver a majority government.

But this isn’t a typical race. The collapse of the NDP and the weakened Bloc Québécois have reshaped the playing field. For the Conservatives to win, they would need everything to align perfectly - and for every poll to be wrong. While that’s not impossible, banking on a catastrophic polling failure isn’t much of a strategy.