(Toronto, ON) – A new poll conducted by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association for Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio and online news media, finds Mark Carney's Liberals leading with 38%.

The rolling survey, conducted March 11th to March 13th, 2025, using interactive voice response technology, surveyed 1,501 Canadian voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and was the most accurate polling firm of the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

“Carney's Liberals are within reach of a majority government,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. “It's a four point race nationally amongst decided and leaning voters but the Liberals are leading in Ontario and Quebec by significant margins. Liberal vote efficiency would result in a strong majority government for the Carney Liberals if the election was held today.”

"It's a stunning turnaround for the Conservatives who have been leading in public polling and a catastrophe for the NDP. That being said, as the election unfolds it will be interesting to see if the Federal NDP can mirror the success of the Ontario NDP in protecting incumbents despite declining vote share."

“The election campaign is expected to commence within the next 10 days. The Conservatives are down but not out - it's possible as Canadians learn more about the new Prime Minister the honeymoon could end. But for now, Carney's Liberals are in a strong lead,” concluded Valentin.