(Toronto, ON) – The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, widening its lead to 12 percentage points over the Conservatives.

If a federal election were held today among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals would receive 45% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives at 33%, the NDP at 10%, and the Bloc Québécois at 6%. The Green Party and People's Party sit at 3% and 2% respectively.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from April 6 to April 18, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 new participants and removing the oldest 500 participants. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

“Prime Minister Carney continues to be the dominant force in Canadian politics, with his approval rating climbing back to 62% after hitting a low of 55% in January."

"The Liberals are posting another double digit lead this week, rebounding from past dips in support. Conversely, Pierre Poilievre’s numbers have remained largely stagnant; his favourability is essentially unchanged from a year ago, while his unfavourable ratings have trended upward, effectively creating a ceiling for the Conservative vote."

"The Liberals now have a majority, and it will be interesting to see if Canadians apply a new grading curve to how they gauge their approval (or disapproval) of the Prime Minister."

Approval and Favourability Ratings

• Mark Carney: The Prime Minister’s approval rating of 62% (with 29% disapproval) represents a strong recovery from his 55% low point in early January 2026. While slightly below his May 2025 high of 68%, he remains the only federal leader with a net-positive rating.
• Pierre Poilievre: Public opinion on the Conservative leader has become increasingly entrenched. His favourable rating stands at 36%, nearly identical to his 35% rating in April 2025. However, his unfavourable rating has climbed from 48% to 53% over the same period, suggesting a polarizing effect as his name recognition has become universal.
• Avi Lewis: The NDP leader has seen the most dramatic shift in profile. Since September 2025, his Not Familiar rating has dropped from 50% to 38%, while his favourability has more than doubled from 11% to 23%. However, his negatives have also risen from 8% to 21% as he becomes better known to the electorate.

Regional & Demographic Highlights

• Ontario & Atlantic Canada: The Liberals maintain a commanding lead in Ontario (50% vs 34% for the CPC) and Atlantic Canada (46% vs 33%).
• The West: The race has tightened in the Prairies, with the Liberals and Conservatives in a statistical dead heat in Manitoba/Saskatchewan at 46% each. The Conservatives lead in Alberta (45%), while the Liberals hold a four-point edge in British Columbia (42% to 38%).
• Generational Divide: The race is most competitive among voters aged 18–34, where the Liberals lead by only three points (41% to 38%). The Liberal advantage grows to 15 points or more among all voters aged 35 and older.