(Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds Toronto mayor Olivia Chow leading in a potential re-match with former Toronto mayor John Tory, 39% to 35%. Brad Bradford, the first candidate to declare their intention to run for mayor, follows in third with 16% (+4).

Conducted from December 19-21, 2025, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 1,000 Toronto voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.09%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

If Toronto voters went to the polls today, Olivia Chow would edge out former mayor John Tory in a rematch - but it would be tight. Chow leads with 39% (-3 since October), while Tory sits at 35% (-1).

Meanwhile, Councillor Brad Bradford continues to build momentum, rising to 16%. His support has doubled since we began fielding in July.

Regionally, Bradford’s support is relatively even across the city. Chow is strongest in downtown Toronto and Scarborough, while Tory’s base remains concentrated in Etobicoke.

One of the key hurdles for both the Bradford and Tory teams is that the Mayor remains broadly well-liked, with a net +13 approval rating. In recent months, Chow’s disapproval has been trending down, while her approval has fluctuated, with the remaining movement largely showing up among respondents who say they’re not sure about her performance.

Liaison continues to track the mayor's approval rate monthly.

In recent weeks, the Finch West LRT has dominated Toronto headlines, and 77% of Torontonians are aware the new line has opened. Even so, most view the rollout as a failure - unsurprising given ongoing concerns around speed and reliability, amplified by sustained media attention. Fully 62% say the opening has been very unsuccessful.

That said, most Torontonians place the blame on Metrolinx: 54% say it is most responsible for the Finch West LRT’s problems, compared with just 21% who point to the TTC.

Toronto has a packed 2026 ahead: the (supposed) opening of the Eglinton Crosstown, the FIFA World Cup, and, yes, the city’s next mayoral election.