(Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies of Ontario reveals a tightening provincial race, with the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) and the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) nearly neck-and-neck among decided and leaning voters. The PCs led by Doug Ford would garner 40% of the decided and leaning vote, followed closely by the Ontario Liberals at 36%. The Ontario NDP sits at 17%, with the Green Party at 5%.

Friday marks one year since the 2025 Ontario election. Liaison was ranked #1 for accuracy in Ontario in 2025, and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Ontarians from February 20-22, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative stratified sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks.  For the total sample, the margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

"While the PCs maintain a four-point lead among decided voters, we are seeing a significant consolidation of the Liberal vote, particularly in key regions like the 416 and 905. In October the PCs were at 47% - now they are at 40%. Every month we have seen them shedding one or two points. If the trend continues, they will soon be tied with the Liberals or trailing."

"In the 416, the Liberals have opened up a ten-point lead over the PCs, while the two parties are effectively tied in the 905 belt surrounding Toronto."

"The race is tightening - despite the fact the Ontario Liberals have no permanent leader and their leadership race has barely begun."

"At the same time, the governing party has been airing countless 'Protect Ontario' ads. I've seen them on TV, heard them on the radio, and they even play before movies at Cineplex. It's worth wondering what the numbers would be if the ads weren't airing."

"The poll also highlights challenges for Premier Doug Ford regarding personal popularity. Currently, 66% of Ontarians disapprove of the job he is doing, compared to 30% who approve."

"The Premier’s approval rating remains a point of vulnerability. Despite a strong PC lead in Eastern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario, the high disapproval numbers, reaching over 70% in the North, South Central, and the 416, suggest that the opposition has a substantial audience for their message."

"This is one of three releases focused on Ontario this week, given that the anniversary of the election is on Friday. We'll have more on Ontario, tomorrow."