(Toronto, ON) – The latest polling from Liaison Strategies shows Mark Carney’s Liberal Party posting a 12-percentage-point lead over the Conservatives among decided and leaning voters, down from a 14-percentage-point lead from last week.

The survey finds the Liberals with 45% support, followed by the Conservatives at 33% and the NDP at 9%.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from March 16 to March 28, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 new participants and removing the oldest 500 participants. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The Liberal lead remains durable as we move into the spring, even if it's been reduced by 2 points week over week. The regionals are strong for the Liberals, they even hit the 50% mark in Ontario. We are also seeing an incredibly tight race in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, a region that is traditionally much stronger for the Conservatives.

"On the flip side, the Conservatives are posting a more 'normal' number in Alberta and their lead there has strengthened to 16 points. Even so, we will want to see this continue for a for weeks for the trend to be solidified."

Regional Highlights (Decided and Leaning Voters) The Liberal Party leads in five of the six regions tracked, including a narrow advantage in the Prairies:

• Ontario: The Liberals have reached 50% support, holding a 16-point lead over the Conservatives (34%).
• Quebec: The Liberals (42%) lead the Bloc Québécois (28%) by 14 points, with the Conservatives at 18%.
• Manitoba/Saskatchewan: The race is a statistical dead heat, with the Liberals at 45% and the Conservatives at 44%.
• British Columbia: The Liberals hold a 5-point lead over the Conservatives (42% to 37%).
• Alberta: The Conservatives maintain a strong lead at 51%, with the Liberals at 35%.
• Atlantic Canada: The Liberals lead with 48% support, followed by the Conservatives at 35%.

"Worth remembering this survey runs through Saturday, the day before Avi Lewis was announced as the new NDP leader. He posts the biggest week-over-week movement in our numbers, and for now what we are seeing appears to be the result of media attention ahead of the outcome."

"Lewis has doubled his favourability, rising from 11% last September to 22% today. But as his profile has grown, so have his negatives, with unfavourability climbing from 8% to 17%. And with 46% of Canadians still unfamiliar with him, down 4 points from last week, his challenge now is introducing himself to the rest of the country without further polarizing the electorate."

"This week, Mark Carney’s approval rating ticks down from 64% to 63%, which is well within the margin of error. In practical terms, there is no real change here. He has now posted either 63% or 64% approval for four straight weeks."

"Meanwhile, there is little sign Pierre Poilievre’s Joe Rogan interview moved the numbers. His favourability has held at 38% for the past three weeks, and his unfavourable score has shifted by just a single point, from 53% to 52%."