(Toronto, ON) – The latest Weekly Federal Tracker rom Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party maintaining a steady 10-percentage-point lead over the Conservatives, bolstered by high approval ratings for Prime Minister Mark Carney and significant leads in key regions like Ontario and the Prairies.

If a federal election were held today the Liberals would receive 43% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives at 33%, and the NDP at 10%. The Bloc Québécois stands at 7%, while the Green Party and People's Party hold 3% and 2% respectively.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from March 30 to April 11, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 new participants and removing the oldest 500 participants. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

“The federal landscape remains remarkably stable with the Liberals holding a double-digit lead. That being said, their support continues to slide ever so slightly as it has for the past few weeks, they have been losing one point per week for the past four weeks.”

"Prime Minister Carney continues to be a major asset for the government, maintaining a 60% approval rating even as he enters the spring session. While the Conservatives remain competitive in British Columbia and dominant in Alberta, the Liberal advantage in Ontario and their surprising strength in Manitoba and Saskatchewan are keeping them firmly in the lead."

Regional Highlights (Decided and Leaning Voters)

• Ontario: It's a repeat: the Liberals hold a commanding lead with 51%, compared to 34% for the Conservatives and 11% (+1) for the NDP.
• Quebec: A competitive race sees the Liberals at 36% and the Bloc Québécois at 30%, with the Conservatives trailing at 18%.
• Prairies (MB/SK): The Liberals lead with 47% over the Conservatives' 41%.
• Alberta: The Conservatives maintain a strong lead at 46%, while the Liberals sit at 31%.
• British Columbia: The Liberals lead narrowly with 41% to the Conservatives' 37%.
• Atlantic Canada: The Liberals hold 43% support, followed by the Conservatives at 37% and the NDP at 13%.

"After the by-elections today the Liberals will have a working majority. It will be interesting to see if there is any change in voting intentions as a result and if long-term, voters begin judging the government differently given its newfound capacity."

"Looking at approval ratings, Carney’s numbers took a hit in January, dropping from the mid-60s to 55%, but he’s clawed it all back. He’s been back above 60% through February and March, and now sits at 60%. More importantly, his negatives have held steady around 30%, leaving him as the only leader with a clear net-positive."

"Poilievre is basically locked in. His favourables have been stuck in the high 30s all year and still can’t crack 40, while his unfavourables sit just over 50%. With only 4% of voters saying they don’t know him, there’s not much room left to move. Opinions are baked in."

"Lewis is the only one really moving. His favourables have more than doubled from 11% to 24% since September as people get to know him, but the tradeoff is obvious: his negatives have climbed from 8% to 20%. As the not sure vote disappears, the question is whether he can keep growing without driving those negatives even higher."

"We will want to keep an eye out on the Prairies as the Liberals' lead there is uncommon and out of character - but strange things are happening, unexpected MPs are crossing the floor and world events have been turbulent. The next part of the story is coming soon, and for now, no federal election appears to be in the offing."