(Toronto, ON) – A new national survey released today by Liaison Strategies reveals that the Liberal Party of Canada, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, has extended its lead in the federal political landscape. If an election were held today, the Liberals would secure 45% of the decided and leaning vote, holding a commanding 12-point advantage over the Conservative Party, which stands at 33%.

The latest tracking survey shows the New Democratic Party (NDP) holding 9% support, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 6%. The Green Party sits at 3%, while the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) and other parties are at 2% each.

“The numbers come on the heels of another floor crossing,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. “If an election were held today, the Liberals would win comfortably - assuming they can hold these numbers through to Election Day. But nothing is guaranteed: campaigns matter, and a lot can change. That’s why they may look to lock in a majority sooner through more floor crossings and key by-elections.”

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from February 9 to February 21, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative stratified sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 participants and removing 500. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The latest data highlights a clear regional divide across the country. While the Liberals maintain a commanding lead in Atlantic Canada at 59%, Ontario at 48%, and Quebec at 43%, the Conservatives continue to hold significant ground in the West (the Liberals still lead in BC). For those counting seats, all of this is bad news for Pierre Poilievre as the current numbers spell out a large Liberal majority."

We continue to track the Prime Minister's approval which looks like this:

And continue to track Pierre Poilievre's favourability which looks like this:

"As the charts show you, the Prime Minister's approval ratings have not changed since the last fielding, while Mr. Poilievre's favourables are down 2 points."

"A favourite guessing game in Ottawa right now is: when will the by-elections be called? I am going to help you look very smart to others by pointing out a couple of things you are free to reuse."

"First is that the Liberals might lose Terrebonne. Therefore, the best thing to do if you're them is to bundle the Terrebonne by-election with the two in Toronto (University-Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest) that they are expected to win. In this way, if they lose Terrebonne, the headline will be: Liberals win 2 of 3 by-elections; rather than something like: Terrebonne hates Liberals, elects Bloc MP."

"The second thing is that no one ever bothers to read Elections Canada news releases. If they did, they would know that the Terrebonne by-election can't be called until February 27th (my birthday!). Elections Canada helpfully points out that the earliest date the by-election can take place is April 6 - but I can guarantee you it won't take place that day. Why not? Because April 6 is Easter Monday!"

"A different pollster (I am too polite to name names) has hypothesized to the media that the Prime Minister is in no hurry to call the by-elections and that it might be months before he does so. This is an interesting take in that I think it is very wrong. It is fairly clear to me the Toronto by-elections would already be underway were it not for the Terrebonne court decision. My expectation is once the Prime Minister can call all the by-elections he will do so at that time or shortly thereafter for a date that is not a statutory holiday. I'll caveat that if someone else resigns, depending who, he might once again have to wait."

"Time's arrow flows in one direction, the latest the Prime Minister can wait to call the University-Rosedale by-election is July 8."