(Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies survey reveals a major shift in the city’s political landscape following John Tory’s announcement that he will not seek a return to the mayoralty. In a field without the former mayor, incumbent Olivia Chow has established a commanding 18-point lead over her nearest rival, while Councillor Brad Bradford and potential candidate Michael Ford have emerged as the primary alternatives.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Torontonians from March 6 to March 8, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The survey is a collaboration with the Toronto Star.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies said:

"The signals are positive for Mayor Chow this month. She is up 3 points in mayoral approval and 50% of Torontonians say the city is moving in the right direction (+1)."

"So horserace aside, some of the other indicators are positive right now."

"The big news from last week was John Tory confirming he will not be running in this year’s election. Since then, a few things have shifted."

"First, the undecided number has jumped 7 points, from 10% to 17%. In that environment, the mayor has gone from 40% to 44%. Most of that 4-point increase appears to be a function of there being fewer decided voters in the pool."

"For context, in last month’s fielding among all voters, including undecided, the mayor was at 36%, which is the same number she is at now."

"Councillor Brad Bradford is also up this week. Among all voters, he has moved from 16% to 21%, a 5-point increase. Among decided and leaning voters, he is up 8 points, from 18% to 26%."

"Regardless, the mayor still holds a double-digit lead in a race where the opposition remains split. Whether that lead is 18 points, 14 points, or 10 points, the result is the same: she is ahead by a lot."

"While Tory has exited the race, Michael Ford has signalled he may throw his hat in the ring. The former cabinet minister, former city councillor, and the Premier’s nephew would start from a position of strength in Etobicoke, the heart of Ford Nation. If he runs, 31% of Etobicoke voters say they would support him for mayor."

"There is a long way to go until October's vote but for now the mayor is doing well. If an elected were held today she would be easily re-elected."