(Toronto, ON) – The latest Ontario survey from Liaison Strategies shows a tightening provincial race, with the Progressive Conservatives holding a narrow three-percentage-point lead over the Ontario Liberal Party.

The survey finds the PCs at 39% support, followed by the Liberals at 36%, the NDP at 18%, and the Greens at 5%.

The survey also reveals widespread public opposition to recent government moves that reduce transparency in Ontario, specifically regarding healthcare reporting, education data, and Freedom of Information (FOI) access.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Ontarians from March 27-29, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative stratified sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks.  For the total sample, the margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

"The PCs are still ahead this month, but their lead continues to narrow and they are now below 40%. At 39%, they are just one point above their lowest level we have ever recorded, 38%."

"Despite that, the share of Ontarians who say the province is on the right track is up two points, and Ford’s approval rating is up one. All of these shifts, including the change in vote intention, are within the margin of error. Whether they continue moving up or down will only become clear with time."

“The data shows a clear message from Ontarians: they want more accountability, not less. Whether it's healthcare statistics, class sizes, or ministerial records, there is a strong consensus across the province that public reporting must be maintained.”

Overwhelming Support for Public Healthcare Reporting
"Despite Ontario Health’s decision to stop public reporting of hallway healthcare statistics in favour of internal monitoring, 70% of Ontarians believe the government should continue to report these figures to the public."

• Only 15% of respondents feel that internal government monitoring is sufficient.
• Support for public reporting is highest in South Central Ontario (79%) and the 416 (79%).

Broad Opposition to FOI Exemptions
"65% of Ontarians oppose new legislation that retroactively exempts the offices of the Premier and Cabinet Ministers from Freedom of Information requests."

• Nearly half of all respondents (47%) strongly oppose the exemption.
• Transparency concerns are compounded by data security fears; 71% of Ontarians are concerned that the lack of public record threats may lead officials to keep sensitive government data on nonsecure personal devices.

Demands for Detailed Education Data
"Following the removal of individual class size caps in favour of board-wide averages, the vast majority of Ontarians want to see the details of individual classrooms."

• 78% of respondents want individual classroom sizes reported in some capacity, 54% want both individual and board-wide averages reported, while 24% want only individual classroom sizes.
• Only 10% believe that reporting just the board-wide average is sufficient.

"The government has made a number of decisions to either stop collecting data or, as with the current FOI changes, to withhold it from the public. In both cases, Ontarians disapprove," concluded Valentin.