(Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, shows a stable race with the Liberals and Conservatives both up 1 point to 39% and 37% respectively.

The rolling survey, conducted from March 20 to March 22, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

"Day one of the election campaign sees both the Liberals and Conservatives gaining a point, while the NDP drops back to 9%," said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. "Today's numbers reflect the past three days of polling, with fresh data from today set to appear in tomorrow's update."

"Regionally, the Liberals hold a strong lead in Atlantic Canada, remain ahead in Quebec and Ontario (by 7 points and 4 points, respectively), and are in a close contest with the Conservatives in British Columbia."

"Though the national numbers suggest a tight race, the regional breakdown paints a different picture—one where a Liberal government remains the most likely outcome."

"But it's only day one of the campaign, and with 35 days to go, there's plenty of room for surprises."

"If the numbers hold, the Liberals are on track to win—so you can bet the Conservatives, NDP, Greens, PPC, and Bloc Québécois will do everything they can to change that. The debates will be pivotal moments, and April 2nd—the day the Trump tariffs take effect—could be a game-changer," concluded Valentin.