(Toronto, ON) – A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association representing Canada’s non-official language newspapers, TV, radio, and online news media, finds the Liberals leading with 43% (+1) to the Conservatives 38% (-1).

The rolling survey, conducted from April 21 to April 23, 2025, used interactive voice response technology to poll 1,500 Canadian voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies, a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), was the most accurate polling firm in the 2025 Ontario Provincial Election.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

Yesterday’s narrowing of the race saw a slight reversal today, with the Liberals ticking up one point and the Conservatives slipping slightly. The NDP hold steady at 8%, while the Bloc Québécois sits at 25% in Quebec, continuing to trail in the province.

The election is almost done! There are just three days left of the daily tracker. As of now, the Liberals are likely to win the election though whether it would be a majority or not is still up in the air.

The Liberals continue to post the regional leads they need: up by 11 points in Atlantic Canada, 15 points ahead of the Bloc Québécois in Quebec (with the Conservatives at 23%), holding an 8-point lead in Ontario (unchanged from yesterday), and leading by 4 points in British Columbia.

With these regionals we would expect the Liberals to win a majority government.

There’s still time for the race to tighten further, and Ontario remains the key battleground to watch. If the Conservatives hope to prevent a Liberal majority, they’ll need to make gains there.