(Toronto, ON) – Ten new Liaison Strategies surveys of Ontario's largest cities finds the federal Liberals leading in Toronto, Ottawa and Mississauga; while the Conservatives lead in Brampton, Markham and Vaughan. Hamilton, London and Kitchener meanwhile are battlegrounds where parties are separated by just one or two percent.

Conducted from October 22 to 23, 2025, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), the survey polled 800 voters per city (with 1,000 polled in Toronto). The margin of error is ±3.46 percentage points for nine of the ten surveys, 19 times out of 20. The Toronto survey has a margin of error of ±3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies said:

With one year to go until Ontario's municipal elections we took a look at the ten most populated cities in the province: Toronto, Ottawa, Mississauga, Brampton, Hamilton, London, Kitchener, Markham, Vaughan and Windsor. Since many of these were key battlegrounds during the federal election we collected federal voting intentions as well.

The NDP trails across all ten cities, polling strongest in Windsor (18%) and Hamilton (21%). Urban Ontario remains Liberal, but the Conservatives are gaining in the suburban and industrial cities that once anchored Liberal majorities. Pierre Poilievre is performing well in the outer GTA, but Mark Carney maintains a deep base in Toronto (51%) and Ottawa (50%).

The city releases, which can be found on our website, show that housing and crime continue to be major issues in urban centres, with crime now the number one issue in the City of Toronto. Despite that, the Carney Liberals are leading in the city with 51%. In Hamilton, where Crime is the top issue for 34%, the Liberals are tied with the Conservatives.

Federal boundaries don't always line up with city boundaries but in some cases (Toronto is a good example) they line up perfectly. Compared to the last election the Conservatives most notably are now up in Brampton, where the Liberal party posted a 2 point lead in the last election.

We don't think there will be an election this year, but with a minority government anything could happen.