(Toronto, ON) – A new national Liaison Strategies poll conducted over the weekend shows the Carney Liberals down three points to 41%, while the Conservatives hold at 36%. Fielded after Carney announced a memorandum of understanding with Alberta on a pipeline, the survey also finds the NDP up two points to 12%, with some signs of life in British Columbia, where they now sit at 19%.

Conducted from November 28 to 30, 2025, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), the survey polled 1,000 Canadians. The margin of error is ±3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies said:

We’re seeing some movement after the MOU with Alberta, but it’s not clear yet whether this is just noise or the start of a trend. The NDP have picked up, especially in British Columbia, but the Prime Minister’s approval remains relatively stable.

Nationally, his approval has edged down to 59%, which is still within the margin of error, and in British Columbia it has barely moved, slipping from 66% in our last survey to 65% now. So if you’re looking for evidence that things are suddenly going off the rails for the Liberals, these numbers suggest that, for the moment, not much has changed.

On the other hand, there are some early signs that the landscape could be shifting. The share of undecided voters has climbed to 19% (up five points since our last survey), and in British Columbia the NDP have gained six points, now sitting at 19%.

We don’t usually see big jumps in the share of undecided voters, and there are a few other technical hints that something may be happening in B.C. (including changes in the share of decided and leaning voters). That said, regional subsamples carry larger margins of error, so we’ll be looking to see whether these signals show up again in future surveys before drawing any firm conclusions.

For now, the Liberals still lead in British Columbia with 40%, ahead of the Conservatives at 33% and the NDP at 19%. They also continue to hold solid regional advantages over the Conservatives in Quebec (+13) and Ontario (+10), so if an election were held today, the most likely outcome would still be a Liberal majority.

On that note, it can be hard to see how national numbers translate into riding-level results. So for the rest of the week, we’ll be releasing a new riding-level survey each day from key battlegrounds across the country. Watch for tomorrow’s release.