(Toronto, ON) – A new national Liaison Strategies poll conducted over the weekend shows the Liberals up one point to 39%, while the Conservatives slip one to 37%. The federal NDP remains in double digits, but is down one point to 11%.

Conducted from December 19-28, 2025, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), the survey polled 1,000 Canadians, with the sample split evenly between two weeks (500 per week). The margin of error is ±3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies said:

Among decided voters, the Liberals at 39% and the Conservatives at 37% are within the margin of error, effectively leaving the two parties in a statistical dead heat, the same place we found them last week.

While the Liberals maintain a lead in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives continue to dominate in Alberta and have a clear advantage in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. In this week's tracking survey the Conservatives are ahead in British Columbia, reversing the Liberal lead we found in the province for the last several months.

Prime Minister Mark Carney ends the year with a majority approval rating of 56%. His highest approval is found in Atlantic Canada (67%) and British Columbia (61%), while his lowest approval rating is in Manitoba and Saskatchewan at 48%. Overall, 40% of Canadians disapprove of his performance, while 5% remain unsure.

Our tracking shows Carney’s numbers continue to move in the wrong direction but he is still in a good position.

On paper, this week’s numbers put the Liberals back in front by two points. But a closer look at the regions suggests this is actually a tougher poll for them than last week’s tie. If the Conservatives can lock in a lead in British Columbia, they can translate that momentum into seats. Ontario remains a bright spot for the Liberals, but this is now our second straight week with the Bloc Québécois above 30%. As the year closes, the regional picture is getting more challenging for the Liberals.