(Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds Hamilton mayor Andrea Horwath with a net disapproval rating and trailing her 2022 opponent, Keanin Loomis, in voting intentions.

Conducted from October 22-23, 2025, using interactive voice response technology, the poll surveyed 800 Hamilton voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.46%, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said the following:

If an election were held today Hamilton Mayor Andrea Horwath would lose, albeit narrowly, to 2022 runner-up Keanin Loomis. Horwath would trail with 40%, which is roughly what she received in the 2022 election. In 2022, Loomis narrowly lost with 40.5% of the vote - and in this survey his support has climbed to 46%.

With Bob Bratina, the other 2022 candidate, ineligible to run (he didn't file the paperwork for his past campaign) we tested former MP Chad Collins who earned 11% of the vote.

Horwath's results come amidst her 47% disapproval rate. She is the only mayor we tested across ten cities to have a net negative approval rating (-6). As a result, she is also the least popular mayor of the ten we tested and this is likely contributing to her low voter intent.

Hamilton voters chose as their top issues crime (34%), taxes (15%) and homelessness (12%). Crime is a larger issue in Hamilton than in any of the other ten cities we tested.

Meanwhile, the federal Liberals and Conservatives are locked in a tight race in Hamilton. The Liberals are up by one point (statistically insignificant) over the Tories, 38% to 37%. The NDP are in third having recovered to 21% of the vote while all other parties trail far behind.

It's important to note this survey tested generic party support and not local candidates names, but either way these numbers point to competitive races.