(Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies national survey finds the Liberals widening their lead over the Conservatives. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 40% to the Conservatives 35%, with the NDP at 11% and the Bloc at 8%. Meanwhile, Mark Carney’s approval rating is up once again to 57%.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from January 5 to January 17, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 participants and removing 500. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The Liberals have managed to tick up another point this week, widening their lead to five points nationally . While the Conservatives continue to hold a significant advantage in Alberta and the Prairies, the Liberal strength in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, combined with a lead in British Columbia, is currently keeping them in the driver's seat."

“Today is Blue Monday, traditionally the gloomiest day of the year, but the Liberal red team will be finding reasons to smile in the regionals. The Liberals have a notable 11-point gap in Ontario, which continues to act as a firewall for the government against Conservative gains. In Quebec, it is cheery news for the Bloc who are statistically tied with the Liberals yet again."

"Despite the usual political pressures, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval has moved to 57%, suggesting he is successfully solidifying his base, particularly among voters aged 65 and older, where his approval reaches 61%. It appears that the steady-hand approach is resonating with older demographics as we begin the 2026 political calendar."