(Ottawa, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies riding poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada shows the Liberals firming up their lead in Eglinton–Lawrence, the city’s closest race in the last federal election. Today’s release is the first in a series of daily riding polls Liaison will publish this week following new national numbers released yesterday.

Conducted from November 24 to 30, 2025, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), the survey polled 602 voters in Eglinton-Lawrence. The margin of error is ±3.99 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies said:

Figuring out how national and provincial numbers translate into individual riding results is never straightforward. To get a better sense of what’s happening on the ground, we picked four ridings to look at this week (I’m sure you can guess at least one of them) to take the pulse of this minority parliament at the local level.

They say all politics is local, and our first stop is my own riding, which was the tightest race in Toronto in the last federal election. Today, though, the picture is very different: the Liberals are now holding a double-digit lead.

The Liberals barely squeaked by in Eglinton–Lawrence last time, and an 11-point lead now is well beyond the margin of error. In the last election they swept almost every seat in Toronto, losing only York Centre and coming within a hair of dropping this one too.

Looking at the Prime Minister’s numbers in the riding, he’s sitting at a healthy +14.

Eglinton–Lawrence has sizeable Jewish and Italian communities, and the shift from a one-point Liberal edge to an 11-point lead in Toronto could be a sign of things to come in similar GTA seats. York Centre and Vaughan–Woodbridge share some of these characteristics, and both flipped to the Conservatives last time.

Stay tuned for a new riding poll tomorrow.