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April 24, 2023 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds a competitive race for Mayor between Olivia Chow, Josh Matlow and Mark Saunders.

Conducted from April 21-22, 2023, with interactive voice response, the poll of 1,264 Toronto voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.75%, 19 times out of 20.

“Olivia Chow (13%), Josh Matlow (12%) and Mark Saunders (11%) are in a dead heat given the margin of error,” said David Valentin, Principal of Liaison Strategies.

“There has not been a lot of movement in the global vote with 43% of Torontonians still undecided on what to do in the mayoral by election. So far it is anyone’s race, and with so many candidates running and jostling for attention, it may be difficult for a candidate in the lower tier to break out."

The Liaison Survey found among all voters (change from last week):

43% Undecided (-2)
13% Chow (+1)
12% Matlow (-1)
11% Saunders (no change)
6% Bradford (+2)
5% Bailao (+2)
5% Hunter (-1)
3% Someone Else (-1)
1% Furey (no change)
1% Perruzza (no change)

Among Decided Voters Only (change from last week):

23% Chow (+1)
21% Matlow (-2)
19% Saunders (-1)
10% Bradford (+4)
9% Bailao (+3)
9% Hunter (-2)
5% Someone Else (-3)
2% Furey (no change)
2% Perruzza (no change)

Issue questions for the survey this week were a collaboration with Chinese language newspaper Ming Pao, one of the most trusted outlets serving Toronto and Vancouver.

“Overall, Torontonians are concerned about crime. 51% say they would be scared to walk alone at night in their community, while 61% say crime in their community is getting worse,” continued Valentin.

“Torontonians are also split on whether the police budget should be cut to move some money into social services, with 39% supporting that move and 37% opposing it. Public sentiment on the issue presents opportunities for candidates but not if the vote remains heavily fractured.”

“Lastly, 38% of Toronto voters are worried about the potential for crime on public transit. That number rises to 56% when you exclude voters who say the question doesn’t apply to them or their family.”

“Toronto has seen several high-profile incidents week after week and crime has been dominating the election. Despite that, Mark Saunders, the former police chief, has yet to lead the field in our polling but that may change as more and more Toronto voters begin to tune into the election campaign,” concluded Valentin.

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