(Toronto, ON) – A new national survey from Liaison Strategies shows Mark Carney’s Liberal Party maintaining a commanding double-digit lead over the Conservatives as political preferences stabilize across the country.

The Weekly Federal Tracker reveals that among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals hold 45% support, followed by the Conservatives at 31% and the NDP at 8%. The Bloc Québécois stands at 6%, while the People's Party and Green Party hold 4% and 3%, respectively.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from March to March 14, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 new participants and removing the oldest 500 participants. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"The 'Carney effect' continues to provide a significant buffer for the Liberal Party. The Liberals once again hold a 14-point advantage nationally. Particularly notable is the Liberal strength in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, which remains the bedrock of their current lead.

"In Alberta, the Conservatives are now essentially tied with the Liberals, though that comes with an important caveat. Last week’s tracking had an unusually strong result for the PPC and “other,” and that sample will be rolled off next week and replaced with new data. Right now, PPC/Other is taking 14% in Alberta. If that holds, it is bad news for the Conservatives. If it was just a one-week blip, we should see their numbers firm up again next week."

"While Mark Carney’s approval remains high at 63%, we are seeing a slight softening this week as his disapproval rating climbed two points to 33%. The momentum we saw heading into March appears to have leveled off, with the numbers returning to the stable range seen throughout February."

"Meanwhile despite a slight improvement in favourability to 38%, Poilievre continues to face a significant challenge in his personal brand. His unfavourability has dropped from 54% to 52%, but it remains stubbornly high. The current 14-point gap between his favourability and unfavourability highlights the hurdle the Conservatives face in broadening their appeal as they move further into 2026".

Terrebonne

"Given recent events, Terrebonne matters a little less than it did before. As long as the Liberals win the Toronto by-elections, and they will, they can get to a majority without taking this seat. Even so, this by-election is under the microscope."

"A few notes, and a few fact checks. Will the Liberal convention in Montreal help the Liberal party in Terrebonne? A little, maybe, but probably not in any meaningful way. Some commentators have floated the idea that convention delegates will pour into the riding and give the campaign a boost. This is a cute but incorrect thought. Most Liberal delegates are unilingual anglophones, while Terrebonne is overwhelmingly francophone. In practice, the convention is more likely to pull Montreal-area volunteers away from the riding as it is to send help into it."

"The Liberals could still get some benefit from the media coverage around the convention. But beyond that, there is not much reason to think it will materially change the race. What will be more consequential is the spending advantage over the Bloc pointed out by Fred DeLorey."

"In other news, former BQ MP and now BQ candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné is challenging all of the candidates to join her for a debate on March 30. On the Liberal side, Tatiana Auguste has now opened her campaign office with 19 members of the Liberal caucus present."

"The campaign literature meanwhile makes for an interesting contrast. Sinclair-Desgagné has put herself front and centre on hers. Auguste, by contrast, has Mark Carney prominently on the front. Draw your own conclusions. She does appear on the back."